Rates And Inflation Interview Practice
This conversation was generated using Cook'd AI's career assistant and reviewed by Fallon Han from our editorial team for accuracy.
I want a finance interview practice session. Please question me on my macro views and judge me on clarity and evidence. I am a second-year undergraduate in Hong Kong and I want to target macro research teams at banks.
Understood. We will keep this at a macro research interview level, with a focus on rates, inflation, central bank reaction functions, and scenario framing. I will press you for clear judgment, not just textbook definitions.
First question: give me your base case for global rates over the next 6 to 12 months. Focus on the US, then tell me whether that path is likely to spill over into Asia and Hong Kong. Keep it tight and evidence-led.
My base case is that US rates drift lower over the next 6 to 12 months, but not in a straight line. I think disinflation continues, especially in goods and some housing components, while growth cools but does not collapse. That should allow the Fed to cut only after it gets more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target. For Hong Kong, policy rates will likely stay tied to the US because of the peg, so the main impact should come through funding conditions and risk sentiment rather than an independent rate path.
Good structure, but I want more precision. You said rates drift lower, yet you did not specify what would make you wrong. Also, your answer is a little broad for a bank interview.
Now answer this: what is the most important factor in the Fed's reaction function right now, and how would you explain the difference between a growth scare and a true policy pivot? Use one or two concrete indicators.
The most important factor in the Fed's reaction function is inflation persistence relative to labor market cooling. If inflation stays sticky in services or if wage growth remains too firm, the Fed can keep policy restrictive even if growth weakens. A growth scare would show up as softer activity data and tighter financial conditions, but without a meaningful break in inflation expectations or core inflation momentum. A true policy pivot would need more convincing evidence that inflation is on a durable path back to target, such as a broad decline in core services inflation and easing wage pressure, not just weaker headline growth.
Better. You are now linking the data to the reaction function, which is exactly what interviewers want. However, you should be careful not to sound overly certain. Macro research teams usually prefer probabilistic thinking.
Next question: compare the inflation outlook for the US and China. What matters more for markets in each case, and how would that affect your rates view? Please frame it as a scenario rather than a single forecast.
In the US, inflation is more important because it directly shapes Fed policy and Treasury yields. In China, weak inflation or even disinflation matters more through growth concerns, policy easing expectations, and spillovers to commodity demand and Asian risk assets. My scenario framing would be: if US disinflation continues while China remains soft, then global duration could perform and cyclicals may lag; if US inflation re-accelerates while China stabilizes, then yields may stay higher for longer and Asia may benefit only selectively through growth support. For Hong Kong, the direct rate channel still follows the US, but China weakness would matter for local credit sentiment and equity flows.
That is much closer to what a macro research interviewer would want. Your answer shows cross-market thinking and links inflation to pricing rather than repeating headlines.
Final evaluation: your strengths are structure, clear mechanism, and a good ability to compare regions. The main weakness is that you need sharper signposts and more explicit downside risk. For example, always say what data would confirm your base case and what would invalidate it.
Overall score: 7.5 out of 10.
To improve for a real bank interview, practice answering in this order: view, evidence, catalyst, risk, and market impact. If you want, I can run a second round and make the questions harder with follow-ups on central bank credibility and term premium.